Rapport fra globalt institut tegner lys fremtid for Afrika - vågnende kæmpe

00:52 | 30.06.10 |

Afrika er andet end råvarer og økonomisk går det så godt i mange af kontinentets lande, at potentialet ligger der lige til at samle op for verdens virksomheder og investorer.

Det konkluderer det verdensomspændende Mckinsey Global Institute (MGI) i en ny opsigtsvækkende rapport, der forudser, at de afrikanske økonomier vil fortsætte med at vokse kraftigt i de kommende år og at fremtidsudsigterne i det hele taget er lyse.

Rapporten "Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African Economies" er udgivet ultimo juni 2010 og skildrer et noget andet billede end vi er vant til. Se bare (på engelsk):

Africas economic pulse has quickened, infusing the continent with a new commercial vibrancy. Real GDP (nationalproduktet) rose 4,9 per cent per year from 2000 through 2008, more than twice its pace in the 1980s and 90s.

Telecom, banking, and retail are flourishing. Construction is booming. Foreign investment is surging.

To be sure, many of the 50-plus individual African economies face serious challenges, including poverty, disease, and high infant mortality.

Yet Africas collective GDP at 1,6 trillion US dollar in 2008, is now roughly equal to Brazils or Russias, and the continent is among the worlds most rapidly growing economic regions.

While Africa's increased economic momentum is widely recognized, less known are its sources and likely staying power. Among the key findings:

* Africas growth acceleration was widespread, with 27 of its 30 largest economies expanding more rapidly after 2000.

* All sectors contributed, including resources, finance, retail, agriculture, transportation and telecommunications.

* Natural resources directly accounted for just 24 percent of the continent's GDP growth from 2000 through 2008. Key to Africa's growth surge were improved political and macroeconomic stability and microeconomic reforms.

* Future economic growth will be supported by Africa's increasing ties to the global economy.

* Rising demand for commodities is driving buyers around the world to pay dearly for Africa's natural riches and to forge new types of partnerships with producers.

* Africa is gaining greater access to international capital; total foreign capital flows into Africa rose from 15 billion US dollar in 2000 to a peak of 87 billion in 2007.

* Africas economic growth is creating substantial new business opportunities that are often overlooked by global companies.

* The report projects that at least four groups of industries-consumer-facing industries - agriculture, resources, and infrastructure - together could generate as much as 2,6 trillion dollar in revenue annually by 2020, or 1 trillion more than today.

* Today the rate of return on foreign investment in Africa is higher than in any other developing region.

* Early entry into African economies provides opportunities to create markets, establish brands, shape industry structure, influence customer preferences, and establish long-term relationships. Business can help build the Africa of the future.

* The rise of the African urban consumer also will fuel long-term growth. Today, 40 percent of Africans live in urban areas, a portion close to China's and continuing to expand.

* The number of households with discretionary income is projected to rise by 50 percent over the next 10 years, reaching 128 million.

* By 2030, the continents' top 18 cities could have a combined spending power of 1,3 trillion.

Se rapportens executive summary med mange flere overraskende tal på
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/progress_and_potential_of_afric...

Rapporten i sin helhed kan læses på
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/progress_and_potential_of_afric...

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